No relief from heat likely before June end

Traditionally, the date for onset of monsoon in Gujarat is June 15. In Ahmedabad, however, it has been noticed (over the past 10 years) that the rains arrive either between June 15 and June 18 or between June 25 and June 29. The meteorological office is currently reviewing the pattern and trends of rain in various regions of the country for the period 1980 to 2010. The study of monsoon onset dates and average rainfall is being conducted for 36 meteorological subdivisions. Day temperatures on Monday rose to above normal levels in parts of Saurashtra and, as a result, moderate heat wave conditions prevailed in parts of Saurashtra and North Gujarat. The weather office said that with the daily maximum temperature rising across the state, the heat wave conditions are likely to continue at least for the next two days. But genuine relief from the summer heat should not be expected before the onset of monsoon. According to the weather office, the monsoon is unlikely to hit the city before the last week of June though, traditionally, the date for its arrival in Gujarat is taken as June 15. It has been noticed in the last few years that monsoon actually arrives in the state around June 29. The first scattered spell of rain can be expected, as usual, around June 16 but the monsoon might disappear for a while after that, only to return towards the end of the month. The central weather office is reviewing the changing monsoon pattern in the country and plans to announce new trends and onset dates for various regions, including Gujarat. Dr Kamaljit Ray, director of India Meteorological Department, Ahmedabad, said that the weather office felt the need to review the monsoon pattern as predictions currently made are based on a study of the rain pattern done for the period 1900-1980. Ray confirmed that a review of the changing rain pattern in Gujarat was also being conducted. A review to determine the average date for the onset of monsoon in the state in the last 30 years (starting from 1980) is being done. There is every possibility that, as a result of the review, the traditional date of onset of monsoon for Gujarat will be revised from June 15 to some date towards the end of June. In Ahmedabad, the actual onset of monsoon in the last five years has taken place between June 24 and June 29. In 2005, the actual date of monsoon’s arrival in Gujarat was June 26, in 2006 it was June 29, in 2007 it was June 24, in 2008 the date was June 26, and in 2009 it was June 24. For declaring the onset of monsoon in Gujarat, there should be at least two days of fairly widespread rain, strong surface winds from south-westerly direction, and position of heavy clouds over the region, the weather office says. Meanwhile, the state’s highest maximum temperature on Monday was recorded at 42.3 degree Celsius in Rajkot and Amreli. The maximum temperature in Ahmedabad was 41.5 degree Celsius. Dr. Kamaljit Ray said that maximum temperatures at present are 2 to 3 degrees above normal in the state and they may rise further in the next two days. The summer heat is likely to intensify further by May 19-20.